E-commerce Trends: 2025 in Review and What's Next for 2026-2027

The CIQRA team29 September 2026 7 min read

In 2025, e-commerce kept growing steadily rather than explosively: U.S. online retail sales rose 5.4% to about $1.23 trillion, or 16.4% of all retail sales. The trends that actually moved the market were AI assistants becoming a real traffic source, social commerce compounding, the end of duty-free small parcels, and new EU rules on accessibility and packaging. Voice shopping and AR, the stars of earlier forecasts, moved far more slowly.

This article looks back at what the 2024 and 2025 predictions got right and wrong, using figures published since, and sets out what online sellers should plan for in 2026 and 2027.

How the 2024-2025 predictions held up

Trend lists written in 2024 tended to promise that every new technology would go mainstream at once. Here is how the main themes fared against the data that is now available.

PredictionWhat happenedVerdict
Online sales keep taking share from storesU.S. e-commerce was 16.4% of retail sales in 2025, up from 16.1% in 2024 (Census Bureau)Right, but gradual
AI-driven personalizationThe bigger shift was AI assistants sending shoppers to stores: retail traffic from generative AI rose 693% in the 2025 holiday season (Adobe)Right, in a different form
Social commerce keeps growingEMARKETER put U.S. social commerce at $87 billion in 2025, up 21.5%Right
Sustainability as a buying factorIt became law in the EU: the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation applies from August 12, 2026Right, via regulation
Voice shopping doublesNo reliable market-size data supports the old forecasts; voice returned in 2026 as part of AI assistantsOverstated
AR and VR on most product pagesNo verified adoption data; still useful in furniture, eyewear and beauty, but nicheOverstated

1. AI assistants became a shopping channel

The clearest change of 2025 was not recommendation widgets on product pages but shoppers starting their research in chat assistants. According to Adobe Analytics data, traffic from generative AI tools to U.S. retail sites rose 693% year over year during the 2025 holiday season, and those visitors converted 31% more often than visitors from other sources. For the 2026 holiday season, Adobe forecasts AI traffic to retail sites will rise another 130%.

Checkout inside the assistant proved harder. On September 29, 2025, OpenAI and Stripe launched Instant Checkout in ChatGPT together with the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), an open standard for agent-initiated purchases. By March 2026, OpenAI had stepped back, saying the first version "did not offer the level of flexibility" it wanted, and let merchants send shoppers to their own checkout while it focused on product discovery. Google, meanwhile, announced the open-source Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) on January 11, 2026, co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target and Walmart. Amazon launched Alexa for Shopping on May 13, 2026, which is also where voice shopping finally resurfaced.

What it means: for now, assistants mostly decide which store a shopper visits. Being readable by them matters more than handing them the checkout. That means clean product data, structured data, accurate prices and stock, and deliberate rules for which AI crawlers may read your site.

2. Social commerce kept compounding

Buying inside social apps was one of the safer 2024 predictions, and it held. EMARKETER estimated U.S. social commerce at $87 billion in 2025, up 21.5%, with TikTok Shop reaching about $15.8 billion in U.S. sales, 108% more than the year before.

The practical lesson is that social platforms are now a sales channel with their own catalogs, fees and customer-service expectations, not only a place to advertise. Keeping one source of truth for products and stock, and measuring conversions accurately across channels, matters more than being on every new platform.

Mobile is still where most of it happens

Mobile accounted for 56.4% of U.S. online holiday spending in 2025, and Adobe forecasts 57.4% for 2026. Fast, simple mobile pages and wallets at checkout remain the baseline, not a trend.

3. Cross-border selling got more expensive

Earlier trend pieces focused on faster delivery. The bigger logistics story turned out to be customs. On August 29, 2025, the United States suspended duty-free "de minimis" treatment for low-value imports from all countries, ending the rule that had let shipments under $800 enter without duties (CBP). In the EU, a flat customs duty of €3 per tariff category applies from July 1, 2026 to parcels worth €150 or less; five T-shirts cost €3, three T-shirts and a watch cost €6. The European Commission describes it as a temporary measure until July 2028, when the wider EU customs reform is due.

What it means: landed cost, duties shown at checkout and local stock are now competitive factors. Sellers who ship across borders need clear duty and returns information on product and checkout pages.

4. Compliance became part of the customer experience

Two EU laws turned soft trends into obligations. Since June 28, 2025, the European Accessibility Act has required online shops selling to EU consumers to be accessible to people with disabilities, covering keyboard navigation, compatibility with assistive technology, and consistent navigation. Service businesses with fewer than 10 employees and under €2 million in turnover are exempt.

The Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation entered into force on February 11, 2025 and applies from August 12, 2026. Among other rules it sets a maximum 50% empty-space ratio for transport and e-commerce packaging, which ends the oversized box with a small item inside. Sustainability, in other words, moved from a marketing message to a packing-station requirement.

What to expect in 2026 and 2027

Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December 2026, up 6.7% on 2025. That points to more of the same: steady growth, with competition decided by execution rather than novelty. Five priorities stand out:

  1. Make your catalog machine-readable. Structured product data, accurate stock and clear policies help both search engines and AI assistants recommend you.
  2. Decide your AI crawler policy. Separate training crawlers from the assistants that send shoppers, and set rules for each.
  3. Measure on the server side. With traffic spread across assistants, social apps and search, reliable conversion data is what makes budgets defensible.
  4. Price in duties and returns. Show landed cost up front and make returns easy to start.
  5. Treat accessibility and packaging as ongoing work. Check new templates and campaigns for accessibility, and review box sizes before the empty-space rules bite.

Where CIQRA fits

CIQRA is built with these shifts in mind. Stores publish structured data (JSON-LD) for products, prices, shipping and returns; you can set separate rules to block model training while staying open to answer engines; and you can optionally open your catalog to AI assistants over a secure connection. Conversions are sent server-side to GA4, Meta, TikTok, Google Ads, Pinterest, Snapchat and Microsoft; on Shop Advanced and above, a storefront assistant answers from your catalog and hands over to your team when needed; and customers can start a return from their account or as a guest.

FAQ

What was the biggest e-commerce trend of 2025?

AI-assisted shopping. Generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites rose 693% in the 2025 holiday season, and those visitors converted better than average, according to Adobe.

How big is e-commerce as a share of retail?

In the United States, e-commerce was 16.4% of total retail sales in 2025 and 16.6% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Census Bureau.

Did voice shopping and AR take off?

Not as predicted. Forecasts of rapid growth were not borne out by reliable data. Voice is returning inside AI assistants such as Amazon's Alexa for Shopping, and AR remains useful mainly for furniture, eyewear and beauty.

Sources

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Written by
The CIQRA team

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